Draft Night Primer

I stopped making attempts at legitimate mock drafts some time ago for two reasons: 1.) Since I don't get to talk to NBA GMs, scouts, etc., all I have to base a mock draft on is looking at other people's mock draft. Second hand knowledge is not always the best information; 2.) NBA GMs, as a whole, are morons. You spend months diagnosing what a certain team needs, looking at all the available prospects, and make an educated, intelligent guess of who the team should take, only to have that thought process thrown out the window when an in-over-his-head GM (See: David Kahn, Minnesota) drafts a point guard when the only player on his team worth keeping also plays point guard. It's easy to guess who each team might pick based on need and availability, but factoring in the human element is almost impossible.

So instead of a Mock Draft, I think it's much better to simply have a look at the prospects and the upcoming draft as a whole rather than the picks themselves.

5 THINGS TO LOOK FOR TONIGHT:
1. There will be a ton of trades - Draft day always sees its fair share of moving and shaking, but this year should bring even more trades than normal. So many teams are trying to cut salary to get in on the Lebron/Wade/Bosh free agent class and another handful of teams are in desperate need of financial help. Combine all that with a draft class that is low on star quality and you've got a breeding ground for lots of moves.
2. Somebody will reach for Daniel Orton - A freshman from Kentucky who barely played and barely contributed, Daniel Orton nevertheless entered the draft and has been projected to go as high as 10 over the last couple of months. Recently, however, his stock has dropped and some of the big prognosticators are guessing that he could drop to the second round. I say this isn't very likely because if past drafts have taught us anything, it's that it only takes one moron to fall in love with "length" and "potential" when better players are on the board. Personally I wouldn't touch Orton with a 10 foot pole unless he did drop to the second round, but I'm smarter than most NBA GMs.
3. Not many Euros will be picked - The European/foreign player phenomenon of a few years ago has all but died out. So many of these players either didn't pan out or have thus far stayed in Europe and some GMs have turned on the foreign market. As few as 5 Euros could be picked tonight, with only 2 as potential first rounders.
4. A number of familiar names will drop - There are several players in this year's draft that would have been drafted much higher last year than they will be this year. Ed Davis would have gone top 3 a year ago, Cole Aldrich would have been top 8, and Willie Warren would have likely been a lottery pick. Davis and Aldrich are probably still lottery picks but Warren and a handful of other prospects hurt their stock tremendously with another year of college.
5. This draft will be talked about more fondly in 5 years than it will be tonight - There's not a lot of star potential in this class, with maybe only 4 to 6 guys who you could reasonably expect to be All Stars. That usually causes a lot of grumbling about the quality of the draft. Truthfully, however, there are a ton of guys that will be picked tonight that should have long careers as top-8 rotation players. From pick 1 to 50, you can get a player in this draft that you can reasonably expect to contribute. That's a good draft in my book.

THE TOP 5 PLAYERS:

1. John Wall, PG, Kentucky - Definitely going to be the first pick and everybody raves about the guy. He has great court vision, relatively high basketball IQ, great athleticism, and incredible size for a point guard. He reminds everyone of a taller Derrick Rose, which would be a heck of a combination. I don't think there's any way he's a bust but I'm not completely sold on him being the once-in-a-generation player everyone talks about. We'll see.
2. Evan Turner, SG/SF, Ohio State - A combo player who does everything: scores, passes, rebounds, defends, leads. The knock on him is his relative lack of athleticism to which I say, bull crap. Turner is a less muscular, less injury-prone version of Brandon Roy, who's doing just fine in spite of his own athletic issues. The biggest problem for Turner is that he doesn't fit in Philadelphia and that's going to stifle his development.
3. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky - Speaking strictly about skills, Cousins is a beast. He (potentially) has a great NBA body and legitimate post moves. He rebounds EXTREMELY well and finishes strong and even blocks a few shots. The problem is, he's a complete and total idiot. He's difficult to coach, difficult to play with, and difficult to judge on how well he'll mature with a big paycheck in his pocket. At best he's an immature kid who just needs some time to grow up. At worst he's a franchise killer and locker room cancer.
4. Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech - As a freshman at GT, Favors looked great one minute, lost the next. He has an incredible amount of talent and I think a lot of his issues can be chocked up to absolutely atrocious guard play and little supporting help. I think he's more of a sure thing than Cousins is, personally.
5. Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse - A relatively unknown transfer from Iowa State, Johnson tore it up in his one year at Syracuse and vaulted himself into the top 5. He reminds me a lot of Shawn Marion with a slightly better jump shot. He doesn't excel at anything but he does pretty much everything pretty well and his defense should keep him on the court even if he struggles offensively.

3 TOP 25 PLAYERS I LOVE:
1. Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky - This guy was the stabilizing glue that held Ketucky together last year. He's got an NBA body and unlike so many of the other bigs in this draft, Patterson is an established player, meaning he can contribute right away. He doesn't have the potential that Cousins does but you know what you're going to get out of him. He can play several positions if need be and what I really love about him is his willingness to do what the teams needs him to do. His first two seasons he was a low post presence and in his last year, when Kentucky brought in Cousins, he transitioned to a face-the-basket player. I love what he could do on a good team.

2. Damion James, SF, Texas - James is going to slip because he's a tweener: too small for power forward, too slow for small forward. But while I wouldn't pick him in the lottery, I'd love to have him on my team in the later stages of the first round. James has a healthy assortment of offensive moves and has turned himself into a decent outside shooter over the last season. And the dude crashes the boards and knocks people down in the process. An excellent backup for a good team.

3. Dominique Jones, SG, USF - The only reason Jones won't be a lottery pick is his height (6'5). If he was 2 inches taller, he'd be a highly rated commodity. He's not a great shooter but what he is is a GREAT scorer. He's got a knack for filling up the basket and getting to the free throw line. He's a dynamic athlete and a pretty solid ball handler who could serve as a makeshift backup point guard.

4 GUYS I'D STAY AWAY FROM:

1. Daniel Orton, C, Kentucky - As noted before, Orton couldn't get off the bench for his college team and didn't do much when he did. He has a rail-thin body that's going to take years to fill out, he's got some maturity issues, and a reported knee issue. None of those things are what you want in a first round pick. Scouts say he has potential but it is the most unproven kind of potential and unless I'm a very good team that can dedicate 3 years to development (Portland), I'd stay away.

2. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky - Again, this guy has the potential to be a franchise maker or breaker. He's going to be so hard to pass on but I'd want nothing to do with him. Immaturity is one thing. You can grow out of that. Immaturity plus entitlement plus some money are a deadly combination. In addition to all of that, he's already out of shape (20 pounds overweight) and isn't so gifted athletically as to be someone who can make up for the added weight. I see Derrick Coleman when I look at him.
3. James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State - Nothing against Anderson here. He's a great scorer with good size. The problem is I don't think he can get his shot in the NBA. He's not a great one-on-one player nor is he quick and svelte enough to run off screens like Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton, etc. That's not a good combination for a player who's entire contribution depends on getting his shot off.
4. Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State - Hasheem Thabeet all over again. Low motor and lack of motivation are likely to keep Alabi from ever adopting any kind of an offensive game. In the second round, he's got some value, but I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

5 SLEEPERS:

1. Darington Hobson, SG, New Mexico - Hobson could go anywhere from 25 to 45. He's a guy who could play shooting guard or point guard, scores at a solid level, and is a great leader. He's a little short for shooting guard in the NBA and little frail but he's got the basketball IQ to succeed.
2. Willie Warren, PG, Oklahoma - Warren, as mentioned, would have been a lottery pick had he come out last year. His stock has dropped drastically after a sophomore year that was marred by injury and a lack of Blake Griffin to take the pressure off. He’s really more of a combo guard than a point guard, too, which doesn’t help. But he has incredible size (6’4, 208) for a combo guard and knows how to score in dynamic fashion. As a lottery pick he’s iffy but as a second rounder he represents a great value.
3. Terrico White, SG, Mississippi - White is another combo guard who could go anywhere on the board from 20 to 35. While he’s not quite as offensively gifted as Warren, he is an amazing athlete and has shown a willingness to learn to be a point guard. If a deep team can snap him up, he could be an immediate help.
4. Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington - Pondexter is exactly the type of guy who slips on draft day. He’s a senior so his potential is lower than some of the other guys and he doesn’t have great size for his position. He also doesn’t have great range which an NBA small forward needs these days. He is, however, an excellent athlete with good scoring ability and an eye for rebounds.
5. Gani Lawal, PF, Georgia Tech - Lawal was a borderline first round pick last year before returning, only to have his place taken from him by Derrick Favors. He and Favors had trouble coexisting as their skill sets are similar and his draft stock struggled. At the end of the first round or later, he’d a Brandon Bass-type who could help immediately.