Friday, April 16, 2010

End of Season Thoughts Part 2: Playoff Predictions

Let me start off by saying I suck at predictions when it comes to who will win what. It's a lifelong curse. So take that into consideration before gambling away your child's college fund.

EAST - ROUND 1

(1) Cleveland v. (8) Chicago - Cleveland in 5
(2) Orlando v. (7) Charlotte - Orlando in 6
(3) Atlanta v. (6) Milwaukee - Atlanta in 5
(4) Boston v. (5) Miami - Boston in 6

Cleveland and Orlando could definitely pull the sweep but I'm not sure either has the killer instinct this early in the game. Boston is so much better than Miami it's not even funny but they get easily distracted and they'll struggle to guard Wade. Next year is it for this group of Celtics. It's really a shame that the Bucks lost center Andrew Bogut to a broken arm. They were primed to make a run but they don't stand a chance without him.

WEST - ROUND 1

(1) LA Lakers v. (8) Oklahoma City - LA in 6
(2) Dallas v. (7) San Antonio - Dallas in 6
(3) Phoenix v. (6) Portland - Phoenix in 7
(4) Denver v. (5) Utah - Utah in 7

After one of the most competitive regular seasons in recent memory, I wouldn't be totally shocked if any of these teams made a Finals run. OKC is a scary team that everyone is writing off as too inexperienced. That may be true, but they play fearless basketball and the Lakers have looked bad down the stretch. I think the Lakers take care of business but wouldn't be shocked to see 7 games. Dallas and San Antonio are both playing well coming in but for once San Antonio doesn't have the talent to match up in a series. I think Portland takes Phoenix if not for Brandon Roy's injury. They are the Suns' biggest matchup problem but without Roy, I don't think they can pull it off.  Denver and Utah is a dead heat. Both teams are great at home, both teams are awful on the road. Depsite that, I think Denver is a bit dysfunctional without George Karl and I don't think they can be trusted.

EAST - SEMIFINALS

(1) Cleveland v. (4) Boston - Cleveland in 6
(2) Orlando v. (3) Atlanta - Orlando in 7

Coming into the year I really though Boston was going to be the team to beat. But Garnett has not been right all season and they seem to have caught Dysfunction Cancer from Rasheed Wallace. I think they have the horses to take the Cavs out but they haven't displayed the consistency to do so all season. Orlando-Atlanta should be a fun series to watch and it will all come down to how well Dwight Howard plays.

WEST - SEMIFINALS

(1) LA v. (5) Utah - LA in 6
(2) Dallas v. (3) Phoenix - Dallas in 6

I'm not in love with this Laker team, obviously, but Utah does not match up well. Laker fans should be hoping Utah beats Denver in Round 1. Dallas and Phoenix were the hottest teams in the league after the All Star break. Dallas, however, can win games in multiple ways: they can outscore you or out defend you, cruise on through or grind it out. If Phoenix isn't making shots, they don't win.

EAST - CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) Cleveland v. (2) Orlando - Cleveland in 6

A rematch of last year's tremendous conference finals but with two big differences: a.) no Hedo Turkoglu for Orlando, and b.) Shaq playing for Cleveland. Hedo was the main factor in the Magic win last year. He defended Lebron well and forced Lebron to play defense. His absence is huge. Shaq was brought to Cleveland for the sole purpose of beating up on Howard. The Cavs are a better team without Shaq EXCEPT in this series. Howard will win the matchup but if he has to struggle to do it, the Cavs win.

WEST_ CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) LA v. (2) Dallas - Dallas in 7

I watch the Mavs on a daily basis so I may be biased. But their ability to win in a variety of ways makes them extremely tough to play against. The Mav swingmen make opposing superstars work better than any team in the league and the leadership of Kidd and Dirk has been a huge factor down the stretch. I think Kidd smells the blood in the water. LA, meanwhile, has struggled lately and it's looked less and less like a team that has nothing to worry about, but instead a team that doesn't quite have it. Dallas has the best road record in the league and isn't afraid to play in LA. I like the Mavs.

FINALS

(1) Cleveland v. (2) Dallas - Cleveland in 7

I think Dallas is a better team than Cleveland, but the Cavs have the best player in the league. When that team gets this close to the title, I think Lebron steps up his game. Plus I've seen Dallas play Dwyane Wade in the Finals and watched the refs parade him to the free throw line. I can't help but think it'll be the same thing this time around. Dallas is good enough to win it in Cleveland but if Lebron is the player he is supposed to be, he wins a title this year.

MVP: Lebron James

Tomorrow: End of Season Awards

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