Monday, April 26, 2010

End of Season Thoughts Part IIII: Reviewing the Draft

I'll be the first to say you can't really judge a draft pick until 3-5 years have passed. Some guys start hot and never live up to their early success, some take longer to adjust but once they do, they excel for a long time. With that said, however, draft day success is a major factor in long term results. A look at the 2009 Draft and which teams helped or hurt their themselves the most.

(Pick number-selection-original draft position-original pick)

1. Tyreke Evans (4); Blake Griffin
2. Stephen Curry (7); Hasheem Thabeet
3. Brandon Jennings (10); James Harden
4. Darren Collison (21); Evans
5. DeJuan Blair (37); Ricky Rubio
6. Taj Gibson (26); Jonny Flynn
7. Marcus Thornton (43); Curry
8. James Harden (3); Jordan Hill
9. Terrence Williams (11); Demar DeRozan
10. Wes Matthews (undrafted); Brandon Jennings
11. Ty Lawson (18); Williams
12. Jonny Flynn (6); Gerald Henderson
13. Rodrique Beaubois (25); Tyler Hansbrough
14. Jonas Jerebko (39); Earl Clark
15. Omri Casspi (23); Austin Daye
16. Eric Maynor (21); James Johnson
17. DeMar DeRozan (9); Jrue Holiday
18. Sam Young (38); Lawson
19. Chase Budinger (44); Jeff Teague
20. Hasheem Thabeet (2); Maynor
21. Toney Douglas (29); Collison
22. AJ Price (52); Victor Craver
23. Wayne Ellington (28); Casspi
24. Jrue Holiday (17); BJ Mullens
25. Jordan Hill (8); Beaubois
26. Tyler Hansbrough (13); Gibson
27. Jodie Meeks (41); DeMarre Carroll
28. Gerald Henderson (12); Ellington
29. Austin Daye (15); Toney Douglas
30. Dante Cunningham (33); Christian Eyenga

INCOMPLETES
- Blake Griffin (injured all season)
Ricky Rubio, Victor Craver (played in Europe)
- Christian Eyenga (will never play in NBA)

BIGGEST STEALS:
- DeJuan Blair fell to the Spurs in the second round because of concerns about his knees. He became a solid contributor on a contending team and is making his mark.
- Darren Collison was looked at as not having much potential which is why he slipped to 21. With Chris Paul out, Collison excelled and may give New Orleans the option to move Paul, as crazy as that sounds.
- Marcus Thornton is an undersized shooting guard, causing him to drop. In the second half of the season he was the third best scorer in this class.
- Wes Matthews, similar to Thornton, went undrafted because he didn't have a true position. In the second half of the season he has started for the contending Jazz and continues to make big plays on both ends of the court.

BIGGEST BUSTS:
- Coming into this draft I could have told you Earl Clark had the biggest potential of being a major bust. He has great athleticism but lacks a defined NBA skill set and the work ethic necessary to put it together.
- James Johnson has looked completely and totally lost all season. He doesn't have any of the fundamental abilities you want from a high draft pick and doesn't look like he has the attitude to change that.
- Hasheem Thabeet really didn't stand a chance. There was no reason for him to be taken as high as he was. He showed signs of being a solid contributor on defense in the future but being a decent defensive center isn't what you want from the number 2 pick.

LOOKING AHEAD
- Griffin and Rubio were, for my money, without question the top two talents in this draft. When they get into the league, they could change the entire look of this draft.
- Rodrique Beaubois is a special player who could very well end up in the top five players of this class when it's all said and done. He is one of three players (with Jennings and Curry) in this draft to have put up 40 points in a game. Special.
- Once again we see that long time college players (Sam Young, Blair, Dante Cunningham, AJ Price) exceed expectations and often jump ahead of the younger, more "potential-laden" players. One of these days NBA teams need to figure this trend out.

One year in this looks like a very talented group of contributors. While there isn't a ton of star quality, a lot of these guys look like they can be players in this league for 8 to 10 years, which is more than you can say for the average draft.

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